Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.030113 0.034304 0.038894 0.044299 0.050495 0.057384 0.065634
2025-01-12 0.022991 0.028519 0.035130 0.043640 0.054333 0.067362 0.084503
2025-01-19 0.018641 0.024467 0.031854 0.041946 0.055436 0.072929 0.097474
2025-01-26 0.016795 0.023098 0.031489 0.043535 0.060493 0.083669 0.118009
2025-02-02 0.015378 0.022020 0.031240 0.045062 0.065418 0.094546 0.139830
2025-02-09 0.014228 0.021119 0.031049 0.046525 0.070262 0.105665 0.163157
2025-02-16 0.012819 0.019646 0.029818 0.046229 0.072338 0.112762 0.181046
2025-02-23 0.011766 0.018575 0.029040 0.046477 0.075180 0.121204 0.201882
2025-03-02 0.010678 0.017321 0.027826 0.045859 0.076492 0.127229 0.219286
2025-03-09 0.010041 0.016721 0.027577 0.046755 0.080343 0.137755 0.245484
2025-03-16 0.009224 0.015734 0.026585 0.046269 0.081731 0.144142 0.264972
2025-03-23 0.008834 0.015431 0.026705 0.047702 0.086608 0.157105 0.297926
2025-03-30 0.007970 0.014236 0.025198 0.046125 0.085942 0.160104 0.312700
2025-04-06 0.007322 0.013368 0.024193 0.045371 0.086734 0.165911 0.333701
2025-04-13 0.006606 0.012309 0.022739 0.043611 0.085385 0.167409 0.346091
2025-04-20 0.006411 0.012204 0.023044 0.045266 0.090912 0.183011 0.389657
2025-04-27 0.006219 0.012086 0.023308 0.046856 0.096459 0.199219 0.436514
2025-05-04 0.006031 0.011957 0.023533 0.048380 0.102013 0.216015 0.486753
2025-05-11 0.005658 0.011425 0.022908 0.048072 0.103618 0.224503 0.519098
2025-05-18 0.005375 0.011050 0.022568 0.048331 0.106474 0.236014 0.559930
2025-05-25 0.005029 0.010513 0.021846 0.047687 0.107239 0.242884 0.590421
2025-06-01 0.004852 0.010323 0.021837 0.048620 0.111695 0.258707 0.645035
2025-06-08 0.004565 0.009867 0.021220 0.048114 0.112731 0.266568 0.680434